Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.931428 2.039770 2.153264 2.281421 2.422605 2.573957 2.749231
2025-07-13 1.790218 1.943052 2.110681 2.309678 2.541476 2.805506 3.132769
2025-07-20 1.707014 1.887992 2.092982 2.345305 2.651773 3.017787 3.497398
2025-07-27 1.646897 1.849174 2.084337 2.382634 2.758123 3.225704 3.870491
2025-08-03 1.573438 1.786980 2.040235 2.369104 2.795054 3.343979 4.134490
2025-08-10 1.510321 1.731970 1.999351 2.353703 2.824390 3.450107 4.388459
2025-08-17 1.451054 1.677598 1.954847 2.328755 2.836484 3.530404 4.610422
2025-08-24 1.398158 1.628009 1.912900 2.303152 2.843761 3.601754 4.823757
2025-08-31 1.361951 1.597380 1.892996 2.304520 2.886657 3.725491 5.131074
2025-09-07 1.333759 1.575366 1.882607 2.317185 2.944986 3.875266 5.498745
2025-09-14 1.290575 1.531974 1.841732 2.284916 2.935012 3.918474 5.688558
2025-09-21 1.250022 1.490440 1.801437 2.251009 2.919723 3.950875 5.861626
2025-09-28 1.206414 1.444010 1.753527 2.205039 2.884983 3.951610 5.981527
2025-10-05 1.191607 1.435270 1.756357 2.231795 2.962650 4.142953 6.495714
2025-10-12 1.180231 1.430472 1.764035 2.265460 3.052693 4.363318 7.110257
2025-10-19 1.170077 1.426772 1.772786 2.300715 3.147213 4.600953 7.813960
2025-10-26 1.145171 1.401955 1.750646 2.287939 3.161751 4.694656 8.212192
2025-11-02 1.121143 1.377575 1.728170 2.273393 3.172011 4.780772 8.610654
2025-11-09 1.095659 1.350420 1.700743 2.249823 3.165206 4.833137 8.935952
2025-11-16 1.071276 1.324139 1.673712 2.225626 3.155668 4.878950 9.254886
2025-11-23 1.055572 1.309590 1.663219 2.226919 3.190456 5.016509 9.861602
2025-11-30 1.043679 1.300043 1.659644 2.238890 3.244673 5.199530 10.656895
2025-12-07 1.020451 1.273781 1.630538 2.208385 3.220156 5.213610 10.937772